Who we are
We are a team of interdisciplinary researchers, who have banded together in 2019 to shine a new light on our hyperconnected world that changes faster and faster. With backgrounds in history, Asian studies, and economics (Justine Walter) and biology (Alexander Hofmann), we aim to generate unique and innovative perspectives on the systemic challenges humanity is, and will continue to be, facing.
What we do
Extreme natural events are not a novel phenomenon but have posed challenges to any human society across history. However, with global climate changing rapidly, population accumulating in the world’s most hazard-prone areas and societies and economies tightly interconnected, the impact of natural events occurring in any part of the world will exacerbate and be noticeable globally.
The world will thus end in disaster – But hopefully not in the foreseeable future. Hazards and disasters have been humanity’s companions from the beginning and will continue to be in the future. This will put us up to ever new challenges. But the ones we have navigated can speak to us about the ones to come. Whether it is anthropogenic climate change, disease, crop failure, or intercultural conflict: they all have big or small predecessors, indicators, patterns, and solutions.
Our goal is to collect what we know about hazards and disasters using multiple approaches – scientific, social, and cultural – to start and facilitate a discussion on what we can do when the next one hits.
We focus on transdisciplinary approaches to widen the scope and increase participation to generate diverse and creative answers on the following questions:
Can we prevent or predict hazards or cataclysmic events that endanger our survival?
How can we manage ongoing crises in a (more) dynamic and efficient way?
How can we establish learning from crises and disasters?
What inspiration can we draw from the past and from non-human systems?
What could a global disaster culture look like?
Our goal is to incorporate as many minds and voices from all fields and ranks of society into a productive structure that predicts, prepares, handles and evaluates future challenges.
1. Why?
Before the backdrop of the 4th Industrial Revolution, economic, political, intellectual, and social spheres are in a state of rapid and constant change. Buzzwords like digital transformation, the new normal and disruptive innovation have evolved into commonplaces and imply that what is known and certain today may be long outdated tomorrow. (change / speed / volatility / uncertainty)
As global societies, economies and cultures are not only in flux but also highly interconnected, it is increasingly hard to determine the roots of problems, forecasts the effects of taken measures, or anticipate trends. Maintaining stability and designing a lifeworthy future in this “century of complexity” as Stephen Hawking once called it are more and more difficult. Unexpected developments, irritations and the unknown unknowns are relevant as never before. (complexity / ambiguity / chaos)
Simultaneous to these developments in the human sphere, global climate is changing. Desertification, soil degradation, crop failure, and shortage of drinking water bear additional potential for social unrest, mass migrations and wars. Frequent and extreme natural events in densely populated areas and an elevated likelihood of pandemics will pose major challenges for the global community.
2. What if?
However, no situation is completely novel and human societies have successfully overcome a diverse range of extreme events in the past. Records of past hazards can speak to us about the ones to come. Whether it is anthropogenic climate change, disease, crop failure, or social disruption, they all have big or small predecessors, indicators, and patterns. Likewise, past societies have found ways to make sense of, cope with, and learn from various natural, anthropogenic, and technological hazards. Combined with the exponentially growing knowledge generated by the sciences, the successes – as well as failures – of past communities coping with hazards yield rich inspiration on how to tackle the complex challenges of the future.
3. How?
The Contingency Institute gathers existing knowledge about hazards as well as the construction of disasters by combining multidisciplinary approaches – scientific, economical, and cultural – to start and facilitate a discussion on how to encounter the challenges of the hypercomplex world. Employing a systems theoretic view, we askHow can we predict hazards or cataclysmic events that endanger our lifestyle or even survival?
How can we manage ongoing crises in a (more) dynamic and effective way?
How can we establish learning from hazards and crises?
What inspiration can we draw from the past and from non-human systems?
What could a global disaster culture look like?We strongly believe that creative and empowering answers to these questions can only be found by integrating as diverse perspectives as possible. That is why we aim at incorporating as many minds and voices from all fields and ranks of society into a productive structure that discusses, predicts, prepares, and evaluates future challenges.
